Research & Publications: Politics

Since the spring of 2007, a series of protests have gripped Southern Yemen. The intensity of the recent protests, their grassroots origins, and their connection with similar grievances and potential instability in the North make the situation particularly dangerous for the Salih regime. The regime has three main policy options for solving the growing crisis: increased repression, a combination of co-option and divide and rule tactics, or an aggressive package of political and economic reform that has as its cornerstone meaningful decentralization. Of the three options, decentralization is the most likely to preserve unity, encourage economic development, and strengthen Salih’s grip on power in the long term. Unfortunately, fear, greed, and old habits will likely guide the President’s decision, and he will choose a combination of targeted repression, co-option, and divide and rule tactics. This choice will aggravate the conflict and most likely result in a prolonged period of instability in the South, which may destabilize a tenuous political balance in the North.

Ziad Asali discusses how to sustain the momentum for peace in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Historically, the US relationship with the GCC countries has been largely defined in terms of security and energy issues. However, in recent years the US dollar and its influence on the currency systems in the Gulf have taken on increased importance. For years the GCC countries have pegged their currencies to the dollar, setting their currencies at a fixed rate with respect to the dollar. This practice paid great dividends in helping the individual countries establish sound macroeconomic fundamentals, especially as defined in terms of low rates of domestic inflation. However, the system comes at the cost of precluding the use of monetary policy, particularly the setting of domestic interest rates that diverge from those in the United States. A close examination of the pros and cons of the current fixed exchange rate system suggest that the time for change to a more flexible system may be at hand. For various reasons, however, GCC countries have decided to maintain the status quo, at least in the near term.

Preparation for the Annapolis meeting on the Middle East, scheduled for November 26 but still subject to change, are taking place in an atmosphere containing hints of unprecedented compromise combined with deep skepticism on the part of the respective populations and of most analysts. The meeting will be immediately followed by months of negotiations where, it is envisioned, the difficult and perennial issues of borders, settlements, Jerusalem, the Right of Return, and security will be dealt with. Even if the leaders can reach a compromise, there are significant concerns as to whether their agreement will be accepted by their own societies.

The Iraqi constitution, drafted in 2005, guarantees basic human rights to all Iraqi women for the first time. Yet three potential pitfalls within the constitution threaten to render all of those rights meaningless: vagueness; discrimination; and the promotion of sectarianism. To begin addressing these weaknesses, the Ministry of Women's Affairs must coordinate the efforts of all local women's non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to develop a unified set of demands. To put pressure on the Iraqi government to adopt these demands, the Ministry must seek and secure the support of UN agencies. In the long term, the Ministry must amend Article 89 of the constitution - the article that allows Sharia law experts to be members of the Supreme Court. The Ministry should seek the support of the President in proposing the amendment. Presidential involvement will help to secure the support of parliament members, from whom a two thirds majority is required to pass a constitutional amendment.