Research & Publications: Economy

Tunisia is facing multiple pressures that, if not handled well by its current leaders, could undermine its stability as it continues to grapple with the post-Arab Spring era.

This essay examines China-Iran trade relations, as well as Chinese investments in Iran. Particularly, it asks whether the Chinese-Iranian stated ambition to increase the value of bilateral trade to $600 billion within a decade is attainable. Additionally, it identifies the factors responsible for the trade deficit in Iran’s favor, and shows that the pace of China’s foreign direct investment (F.D.I) in Iran is slowing in spite of absolute increases.

No figure in Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s tightknit cabinet was more lifted by the recent Iranian election results than Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh. The Iranian economy hangs on his ability to deliver on his ambitious plans to attract $200 billion in foreign investment to expand Iran’s enormous oil and gas export potential.

Iraqi Kurdish journalist Mohammed A. Salih explores the impact of low oil prices on Iraqi Kurdistan. Deepening economic and financial crises in Iraq’s Kurdish region are likely to impose limitations on the semi-autonomous region’s quest for statehood. However, this does not suggest that a rapprochement between the Kurds and federal authorities in Baghdad is imminent. If unaddressed, a prolonged state of economic crisis and budget deficits will also add more strain on the ability of the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) to finance the costly war against the Islamic State, otherwise known as ISIS, which could potentially affect morale within Kurdish peshmerga ranks.

Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani warned Qataris in November that due to tumbling oil prices, the government could no longer “provide for everything.” The following month he addressed “wasteful spending, overstaffing and a lack of accountability,” sending a clear message that austerity measures were on the way.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit last month to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran represented the first, full frontal launch of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy in the Middle East. The visit has wide implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-China relations as the geopolitical chessboard undergoes a major realignment.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is eager to open up the country's economy. Iranian hardliners are eager to stop him.

China is a major economic partner of the GCC countries. This essay discusses the size and scope of this economic relationship, and considers how these ties might evolve as China's ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) and Maritime Silk Road (MRS) initiatives take shape.